Assessment of Climate-Driven Variations in Malaria Transmission in Senegal Using the VECTRI Model

Several vector-borne diseases, such as malaria, are sensitive to climate and weather conditions. When unusual conditions prevail, for example, during periods of heavy rainfall, mosquito populations can multiply trigger epidemics. This study, which consists better understanding the link between malaria transmission factors at a national level, aims validate VECTRI model (VECtor borne disease community ICTP, TRIeste) in Senegal. The is grid-distributed dynamical that couples biological vector parasite life cycles simple compartmental Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) representation progression human host. In this driven by reanalysis data (ERA-5) was used simulate parameters, entomological inoculation rate (EIR) addition ERA5-Land daily other rainfall come from different meteorological products, including CPC Global Unified Gauge-Based Analysis Daily Precipitation (CPC Climate Prediction Center), satellite African Rainfall Climatology 2.0 (ARC2), Hazards InfraRed with Station (CHIRPS). Observed National Malaria Control Program Senegal (PNLP/Programme de Lutte contre le Paludisme au Senegal) outputs study were compared. findings highlight unimodal shape temporal occurrence, seasonal contrast closely linked latitudinal variation showing south–north gradient over showed peak takes place September October, lag about one month There an agreement observations simulations decreasing cases on time. These results indicate southern area highest risk spread outbreaks. paper expected guide community-based early-warning systems adaptation strategies Senegal, will feed into prevention, response, care adapted needs local communities.